What they say about Michigan, the US Senate

Election Day is Tuesday and Michiganders will select a new U.S. Senator help determine who the next president is. With that in mind, here’s what the Free Press polls – and those of others – tell us about who is expected to win.

In short: it seems to be getting close.

US presidential race: Harris vs. Trump poll in Michigan

Our latest survey, published Friday and conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners, showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican former President Donald Trump in Michigan 48%-45%, thanks to growing support among black voters and women.

Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, this could mean the race is a dead end. But it also signals a swing towards Harris and it was the first time since November last year that the Democratic candidate in the race for the presidency led Trump in Michigan in the EPIC-MRA polls.

Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes, awarded to whoever wins the state’s popular vote for president, could be crucial in determining the winner. Michigan is one of the few swing states that will determine the race, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Our poll was slightly better for Harris than some others. Websites that average the survey results suggest Harris is leading everywhere in Michigan from 1% Unpleasant about 2%.

And the race appears to be really close in all the swing states. Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be the most favorable for Harris; most others look more favorably to Trump. Pennsylvania and Nevada seem to be the closest right now. What that means: If Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she has the best chance of becoming president; if Trump wins all the other swing states and picks up one of those three, he has the best chance of winning.

At a national level, Harris is slightly higher on most averages.

U.S. Senate Race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

In the open race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly, led Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake by 5 percentage points, 47%-42% in the latest Free Press poll.

That is just outside the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Slotkin has typically led in most polls in the race to succeed Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, who announced early last year that she would not run for a fifth six-year term. But the polls are so close that even a small election error — or a surge of supporters at the polling booth — could make it a shock or a blow for either candidate.

Other information about election polls

Moreover, the Free Press has reported on a large number of other polling data in recent weeks and months of this election season. Here are a handful of links to those stories:

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.