18 tropical depressions are forming and are expected to enter the Gulf as hurricanes

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is monitoring newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico this week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images and surface observations Monday morning indicated that the low-pressure system over the Caribbean Sea had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep thunderstorms. Therefore, the system ultimately met the criteria of a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eighteen occurred Monday morning in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica.(Wlox)

Tropical Depression Eighteen is expected to move into the Gulf later this week.(Wlox)

TD Eighteen is expected to become a hurricane later this week as it moves into the Gulf(Wlox)

It is expected that environmental conditions will be favorable enough for TD Eighteen to grow stronger. It is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday afternoon. The next available name is Rafael.

The forecast shows it could reach Category 1 hurricane strength within a few days as it crosses western Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.

WHAT WILL THE STEERING PATTERN BE?

Where this possible system goes once it reaches the Gulf will ultimately depend on the strength of a high-pressure system over the southeastern U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean.

A possible scenario is that the controlling high-pressure system is large and strong. This would... — A possible scenario is that the controlling high-pressure system is large and strong. This would help prevent the TD Eighteen from reaching the northern Gulf and instead send the system further west.(Wlox)

A possible scenario is that the controlling high-pressure system is weak and small. This would... — A possible scenario is that the controlling high-pressure system is weak and small. This would allow Eighteen to move closer to the northern Gulf.(Wlox)

WHAT FACTORS COULD WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM?

Work in favor of the possible system? Sea temperature and low wind shear over the southern Gulf. Working against the possible system? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deep warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support an intensifying tropical system in the Gulf... — Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support an intensifying tropical system in the Gulf and Caribbean.(Wlox)

Sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in November across most of the Gulf and the Caribbean.(Wlox)

Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help TD Eighteen grow stronger. But the Gulf is warm... — Deep warm water in the Caribbean will help TD Eighteen grow stronger. But the warm water of the Gulf is shallow and there is much cooler water beneath the surface. So that should help prevent the strength of the Eighteen from becoming a major storm.(Wlox)

Dry air in the TD Eighteen's path could help limit its strength. — Dry air in the TD Eighteen’s path could help limit its strength.(Wlox)

In the coming days, low wind shear could help TD Eighteen gain strength. But the... — In the coming days, low wind shear could help TD Eighteen gain strength. But the northern Gulf has strong wind shear, so if Eighteen moves into the northern Gulf, that strong wind shear would help limit any strengthening.(Wlox)

WHAT CAN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI EXPECT?

Since TD Eighteen was recently established, it may take some time for the models to become more accurate with the specific details such as track and intensity of this system.

For the time being, our local weather forecasts assume a slightly higher chance of rain around Friday and Saturday, which can be associated with the tropical weather. And our weather during those days can be on the breezy side depending on how close TD Eighteen gets to us.

If TD Eighteen will actually impact the weather in Coastal Mississippi, it would be around Friday... — If TD Eighteen will actually impact the weather in Coastal Mississippi, it would be around Friday or Saturday of this week. For now, however, there is uncertainty in the forecasts for the end of the week. So it’s not yet clear whether we’ll see any of this or not.

In the meantime, it’s a good idea to re-examine the weather forecasts as details are likely to become clearer in the coming days.

This is a good reminder that hurricane season doesn’t officially end until November 30th.

By the way, since 1850, there have only been three hurricanes that have made landfall in the US in the month of November.

November Hurricane has been making landfall since 1850(WLOX)

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