Pennsylvania voters were evenly split on Harris, Trump's poll shows

With days before Tuesday’s election day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of many important swing states that can determine this the winner, according to a new exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

Harris and Trump each have an even split of 49% of the vote, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27 to 30, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which direction state trends are heading, was also 48% to 48% tied. Northampton County, another bellwether in Pennsylvania, leaned slightly toward Trump, with 50% saying they support him, compared to Harris’s 48%. The provincial poll results are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

Together, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the state and national data show Pennsylvania “is really a toss-up.”

“We have all the results within the margin of error… it’s basically a statistical equality,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes – the most among swing states. Both candidates campaigned in the state this week. Trump held a meeting in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

Biden won Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point in 2020. He flipped both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump had won in 2016.

The state is part of the ‘blue wall’, a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections until Trump won three in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Undecided voters and third-party voters

Most Pennsylvania voters have already decided who they will support, but with the race so close, the small percentage of undecided could influence the outcome of the state’s — and country’s — election.

This also applies to third-party candidates. In Pennsylvania, there are two options on the ballot besides Trump and Harris: Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. They each polled 1% or less in support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

But if the Pennsylvania election is as close as polls suggest, a candidate with 0.5% could tip the scales for Harris or Trump, Paleologos said.

Jason Danner, 38, is one of the few undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

While Danner said he believes Trump was a good president, he is concerned that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “doesn’t appear to respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he is afraid that Harris will continue Biden’s policies.

As a registered Democrat, Danner said when he finally got into the voting booth that he would “most likely” vote for Harris. But he’ll just do it reluctantly.

“I’ve voted my whole life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I think: I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become so apathetic to our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote, but will leave the presidential box blank. After voting for Biden last election cycle, Doyle said he cannot accept that Harris was not elected in a primary process.

“We needed a fair primary, and it was taken away from us,” he said. “I cannot bear to vote for the candidate whose party is okay with disapproving voters in this way.”

Doyle, a 12-year veteran, said his politics are most aligned with the Libertarian Party but believes casting a third-party vote would be a waste of his vote. In 2020, he made a last-minute decision not to support Trump after “remembering all the things he said negatively about veterans.”

Although he supports the Democrats’ economic policies, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“I see less and less when it comes to something that really helps me,” he said.

The gender gap

Nationally, Harris has a decisive lead among women, while Trump has gained a similar lead among men.

And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said.

Trump is up 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has 18% traction with women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris’ 17-point lead among women.

“Where the rubber meets the road is in the married couple’s household,” Paleologos said. “It’s the married women and married men who are having trouble with this election because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she has already voted for Harris. “I have two daughters, and that’s my big problem,” she said.

“I terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be completely different, and most likely not a good way,” says Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mother of three. 11, 8 and 6, who live in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.

Although Keshgegian voted for President Biden in 2020 because she felt he was the best choice, she “would prefer someone younger, more attuned to a change in administration, as opposed to the same old white men,” she said . She feels more connected to Harris, who she finds more relatable, compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump may be able to lower prices, and she understands people will vote for him for that reason. But she cannot adhere to what she sees as his other characteristics. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than someone with his ideals.”

That calculation weighs differently for others.

Luanne McDonald, from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and views both Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. McDonald, who describes herself as independent, disagrees with Trump’s positions on abortion or women’s rights, but calls Harris “weak and wishy-washy.”

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5. When it comes to the issues that matter most to her — the economy and public policy — McDonald said she thinks Trump will do better.

“I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, but now I can’t afford it,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I have never felt poor until now.”

Not surprisingly, more than 70% of people who view current economic conditions as bad say they support Trump. Harris outperformed Trump compared to those who believed the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape.

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump to the bottom of the ticket.

The owner of a house painting and wallpapering company in Chalfont, about 30 miles (48 kilometers) north of Philadelphia, said economic issues are his top priority. “As a self-employed person, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can deliver results.

Cheaper energy “will help lower the cost of goods, and less regulation will also help stimulate business growth,” he said. “I like Republicans because of their more conservative positions on spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt, of Berks County, Pennsylvania, describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his top concern.

“I don’t disagree with any of Trump’s policies,” said Borchelt, 44, pointing to the former president’s tax and pro-production policies. “But if you don’t cross the bar of accepting the outcome of an election, you’re not being involved in a democratic election.”

Trump faces multiple criminal lawsuits for attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election, and he has done just that refused to say he would accept it the outcome of the 2024 race.

Borchelt has never voted for Trump – in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson, and in 2020 he endorsed Biden. This year, he said, he hopes Trump will lose and that politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name-calling and violence and ugliness.”

“I’m a little tired of it,” he said.