Harris could have a big early voting lead despite Trump’s claims that the GOP is winning, polls show

Despite Donald Trump’s pride in an “unprecedented” lead in early voting, opinion polls show this Kamala Harris in fact, is significantly ahead among those who have already voted via absentee ballots, by mail or in person.

Recent National Opinion Polls by ABC News/Ipsos, The News York Times/Sienna College and CNN showing Harris leading Trump 62 percent to 33 percent; 59 percent to 40 percent; and 61 percent and 36 percent, respectively, according to an analysis of the Washingtonpost.

The same trend also applies to almost all swing states, according to surveys by CNN, Fox News, Marist Poll and US Today/University of Suffolk.

Polls show Harris leading early voting in Arizona (between nine and 12 percent), Georgia (between seven and 10 percent), Michigan (between 26 and 39 percent), North Carolina (between two and six percent). , Pennsylvania (between 17 and 35 percent) and Wisconsin (between 22 and 60 percent).

A CNN survey of those who said they had already voted shows Trump leading Harris in Nevada by six points.

According to the University of Florida, early voting records have already been broken this election cycle; an estimated 65 million people voted.

An estimated 65 percent of likely voters have previously cast ballots or plan to do so Election Day on Tuesday, according to Marist Poll.

Excitement is growing in the Republican camp as polls show Republicans have embraced early voting far more than in 2020 – when Trump discouraged the use of mail-in ballots despite the US being in the depths of the Covid pandemic.

In Pennsylvania, for example, registered Republicans represent about 32 percent of early votes this year — a significant increase from 21 percent in 2020, according to CNN.

Trump has claimed that his party is actually leading in the polls among early voters.

“For the first time ever, we are leading the way in early voting. As you know, the Democrats always lead in the beginning and the Republicans would like to continue to do so,” the former president said Thursday during a campaign stop in Henderson, Nevada.

“But we are doing very well. And to be ahead of the curve in early voting is unprecedented.”

Despite higher Republican voter turnout, Harris is expected to enter Election Day with a significant lead, polls show.

However, the same was true for 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Opinion polls from ABC News/Washington Post and McClatchy/Marist College suggested the former New York senator had an eight- to 16-point lead among early voters.

Some strategists caution that the early voting picture is not an accurate representation of the total votes for the presidential rivals.

“The early voting totals tell us nothing about who will win, and people should be extremely wary of claims that one party or the other is pulling out of this race,” said David Becker, who directs the Center for Election Innovation and Research. , told CNN.

National polls of all likely voters — including those who say they have not yet voted — place the presidential candidates on a much more equal footing.

That of the Independents national poll trackerwhich uses data from FiveThirtyEight, finds that Harris currently has a 1.4 point lead over Trump, 48.1 percent to 46.7 percent. The candidates are also almost at an impasse in the swing states.