New report shows that the birth rate in Germany is falling rapidly – DW – 23/10/2024

Ifo Institute of Economic Research said in a new report published Wednesday that birth rates are falling sharply in Germany, with the federal states in the east of the country most affected.

Scientists from a leading economic think tank have cited a number of reasons for the decline in birth rates, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Moreover, high inflation has prompted “young families to postpone having children for now,” said Ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz.

Falling birth rates

“Overall, almost 80,000 fewer babies were born in 2022 and 2023 than would have been expected,” Ragnitz said.

Ragnitz is an expert on demographic change and has studied trends in eastern Germany. He said the birth rate “has changed enormously in the last three years.”

The birth rate, or the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime, has fallen from 1.58 children per woman in 2021 to 1.35 today.

Disproportionate decline in birth rates in eastern Germany

In 2023, 693,000 were born. children, which is almost 13% less than children born in 2021.

The study showed a disproportionate decline in the birth rate, 17.5%, in Germany’s eastern states.

Researchers said it was impossible to say whether the change was a permanent or temporary change in family planning.

“It would be good if politicians monitored this development more closely, also to avoid possible wrong decisions regarding the expansion of kindergartens and schools,” Ragnitz said.

Between 2011 and 2016, the fertility rate in Germany increased from 1.39 to 1.59 partly due to better overall conditions for families with children, as well as the influx of immigrant families with higher fertility rates.

In the western German states, 32.9% of the population has a migrant background, meaning that they either emigrated themselves or come from immigrant families. In the eastern states this percentage is 11.4%.

rm/wmr (Reuters, KNA, EPD)