This candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes looks more and more promising

As America approaches Election Day on November 5, the path to 270 electoral votes for former President Trump looks more promising with each passing day.

Make no mistake, while an unprecedented 2024 presidential campaign remains a razor-thin affair, there are several indicators that Trump is stronger than he was in 2016 and 2020.

Perhaps the most important factor is what voters think about the direction of the country under the failed leadership of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over the past four years. According to polling averages, the number of good and bad songs is lower by a staggering 37%, with Biden and Harris leading the way.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)

Some surveys put the number of wrong courses of action as high as 79%, while others found that only 18% believe we are on the right path. With massive inflation, open borders and crime across the country, many people are wondering what the 18% think.

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Among key demographic groups, there are even more reasons for optimism for Trump. In 2016, when he was elected president, Trump received 8% of the African American vote. Currently, polls show he has the support of a significantly increased 29% of Black voters.

A recent Wall Street Journal report indicates that the loss of black men at the ballot box is a major concern for Democrats: “Polls have shown that Trump has a higher percentage of support among black voters, particularly among men, than in previous campaigns, which increases support and there is a possibility that that he will manage to disrupt the Democratic electoral coalition.”

Similarly, among Latino voters, Trump received 28% of the vote in 2016, and today’s polls show that Trump’s support among Latinos has jumped to 47%. When even the New York Times writes things like, “Vice President Kamala Harris’s approval among Latino voters is dangerously low for Democrats” or “By almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is doing as well or better among Black and Latino voters as anyone Republican lately” – this is obviously a cause for great concern on the left.

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The reason for the interest in Trump’s candidacy is likely simple: families were wealthier, our streets were safer, and our borders were secure when he was in office. Trump’s common-sense policies have produced positive results regardless of socioeconomic status or background.

And despite the misinformation being heard from Harris and her allies in the liberal mainstream media, the 2024 presidential election is a referendum on the disastrous policies of an incumbent — in this case, the incumbent vice president — who has been in power for almost four years in the summer.

Biden and Harris’ radical agenda has sent the cost of living out of control for millions of American families who are now struggling to make ends meet. Trump’s reckless open borders policy – ​​and conscious decision to reverse Trump’s effective border security measures – has created an unnecessary disaster that will remain with us for decades. And weakness on the world stage has emboldened our enemies around the world.

The crystal clear contrast seen in this campaign is unmistakable. Bold colors, not pale pastels, as President Ronald Reagan used to say. Under President Trump, we had virtually no inflation, our borders were secure, and the world was at peace.

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Leadership matters and choices do have consequences. Americans are no better off today than they were four years ago, when Trump left office.

And perhaps this is the reason why Trump is doing better in the polls now than he did at the same time in 2016 and 2020.

As of this writing, Trump leads Harris – albeit narrowly – in seven of the most critical battleground states. According to public polling data, the state of the race has been very different in previous campaigns.

At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading in North Carolina by 3.3 percentage points, but Trump ultimately won the state. In 2020, Biden also carried North Carolina, but Trump won the Tar Heel State again.

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Fast forward to 2024, and polls currently show Trump with a slight lead in this all-important state. So if Trump continues to outperform his poll numbers, the former president will be well-positioned to recapture North Carolina’s coveted 16 electoral votes.

In Pennsylvania and the fight for its all-important 19 electoral votes, the polling average shows Trump leading. However, in 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden outperformed Trump by 6.7 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively. As it turned out, Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 and did much better in 2020 than polls predicted.

Similar trends are occurring in other swing states. Just look at Arizona, where in 2016 polls showed Trump winning the state by 0.7 points at that stage of the race, but ultimately outperforming the state by 3.5 percentage points. In 2020, polls had Biden ahead by 3.9 points, but he was ahead of the Grand Canyon State by just 0.3 points.

Compare the Biden-Trump numbers to what’s happening this time, where the polling average shows Trump leading by 11 electoral votes in Arizona heading into the race, just like he did in 2016 when he won the state.

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When examining polling data for the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential races, perhaps the most stunning numbers come from the west-central state of Wisconsin.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton appeared to be in the driver’s seat in the Badger State with a 6.4-point lead at this point in the race, but Trump won the state. And in 2020, polling averages put Biden ahead by six points, but he only managed to maintain a 0.6% lead.

Of course, Biden’s bloated lead in the state heading into the election was reinforced by a Washington Post-ABC poll conducted in late October that showed Biden ahead by 17 points. Many people believe that such irresponsible polls amount to election interference because they can effectively suppress votes for a candidate they believe is losing.

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And in Wisconsin in 2020, where the lead was down to just 20,000 votes, who knows what would have happened if voters had had to consider more accurate polling before going to the polls – or not going to the polls. Currently, polls in Wisconsin show the race is dead, which is good news for Trump if history is any indication.

As Americans cast ballots across the country, there are many reasons to believe that Donald Trump has the wind at his back. And if they turn out to be a “change” election in the 1980 tradition, voters may dramatically stop voting for a “Trump challenger” at the very end.

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