NFL Week 8 “Thursday Night Football” – odds and picks

The Vikings head west to take on the Rams on Thursday night in an NFC battle that should provide plenty of intrigue.

Two key offensive players are expected to return: The Vikings will have TJ Hockenson (knee) back on the field for the first time this season, and the Rams will have Cooper Kupp (ankle) in the lineup for the first time since Week 2.

Let’s dig deeper into the matchup and see what the primetime value of this matchup is.

“TNF” odds between Vikings and Rams

Team	Proliferation	Money line	Total
Vikings	-3 (-105)	-160	o48 (-110)
Rams	+3 (-115)	+135	u48 (-110)

When the Vikings have the ball

Sam Darnold performed much better than expected for the Vikings and fits perfectly into Kevin O’Connell’s masterful offensive system.

Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt and has shown strong accuracy, ranking third in completion percentage above expectation.

Led by Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are armed with weapons that look ready to take down the Rams’ secondary.

Los Angeles ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the pass this season, and while the return of cornerback Darious Williams helps, the team’s safety has not been assured.

The Rams rank 27th in DVOA against the deep ball this season, and Darnold is the third-most efficient deep ball passer in the league according to YPA.

Minnesota should also be able to secure a strong run against a Rams defense that ranks 27th in adjusted line yards.

Aaron Jones’ ability to find success on early downs should help Darnold avoid obvious passing situations against the Rams’ pressure unit, which is the best part of their defense.

When the Rams have the ball

Kupp’s expected return should be a huge boost to a team that has been one of the worst-received teams in the league over the past few weeks.

However, my biggest fear for this matchup is Matthew Stafford’s ability to handle pressure in the face of Brian Flores’ lightning-quick defense. Los Angeles could also get WR Puka Nacua back (questionable).

The Vikings rank second in rushing offense and first in pressure this season, and pass protection has been a major issue for the Rams.

Stafford has been under pressure on 26.5 percent of his sacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Los Angeles has yet to find any continuity on the offensive line despite injuries and poor play from various starters.

Stafford ranks 32nd out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s rankings for positive performance under pressure, with five successful plays and no big throws.

Kupp’s return helps this dynamic somewhat, but Stafford’s lack of mobility at this point in his career poses major problems with Minnesota’s pass rush.

The Rams will likely rely on Kyren Williams early in the game to keep Stafford out of obvious passing situations, but the Vikings have the second-best defense in the NFL this season per EPA allowance early in the game.

They also rank first in DVOA against the run.

Final verdict

There is no doubt that Stafford is a better quarterback than Darnold.

However, I would argue that the Vikings have a significant advantage in every other aspect of this game, especially in the trenches.

On Sunday, the Rams had a hard time beating a bad Raiders team despite having a +3 turnover advantage, including a defensive touchdown.

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Are you betting on the NFL?

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Vikings won’t be so nice when it comes to gifts in this game.

The situational aspect favors the Rams as the Vikings travel on a short week after a tight division loss to the Lions.

Still, the schematic upside is overwhelming for Minnesota.

I’m backing Kevin O’Connell to lead his team to victory in his first game against his former boss, Sean McVay.

Recommendation: Vikings -3 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)

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