The Harris versus Trump election poll shows a historic divide between men and women

The gender gap is growing wider and deeper – and more powerful.

The differences between how men and women view the state of the nation, the issues that matter, and the candidates are the defining divide in American politics today, and will determine the outcome of the presidential race now just ten days away takes.

In the latter USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women decisively supported Democrat Kamala Harris, 53% to 36%. That mirrors men’s overwhelming support for Republican Donald Trump, 53% to 37%. If these margins hold until Election Day, this would be the largest disparity since a gender gap emerged more than four decades ago in 1980.

This year, the gender gap has become significant among Latino and Black voters as well as white voters.

Some respondents have seen divisions within their own families.

“This is a very difficult topic, it affects me deeply,” said Vanessa Carmona, 48, of Pasadena, California, who was named in the poll. Her husband says it “makes financial sense to have a Republican in power,” but she sees reproductive rights as the most important issue, partly because of her own experiences. “Knowing our history of having a miscarriage and going through that – that’s when I literally broke down and cried. I was like, ‘I can’t even believe you’re saying this now, with what we’ve been through.’”

A confluence of factors helps explain the divide: From the start of his political career, Trump has disproportionately appealed to men; his muscular policy positions have appealed to some men and his sometimes offensive rhetoric has turned off some women. Harris’ nomination as a woman of color is historic and a draw for some women. And the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade has put a spotlight on abortion rights, a right that resonates more strongly with women.

Here’s what we found about the country’s political wars by gender in our national and state polls.

This is new: a huge gender gap among Latinos

Trump’s unexpectedly strong appeal to Latino men has led to a significant gender gap among a demographic group that was previously solidly Democratic.

In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters in the swing state of Arizona, women supported Harris by an overwhelming 40 percentage points (68% to 28%), while men supported Trump by a narrow 2 points (48% to 46%).

That disparity is well outside the margin of error of plus or minus about 6 percentage points when looking at the results by gender.

Nevada, another swing state, showed a similar trend. The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of Hispanics found that women supported Harris by 39 points (68% to 29%), while men supported Trump by 6 points (50% to 44%).

The Arizona and Nevada polls of 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in each state were conducted by landline and cell phone from September 27 to October 2.

Among black voters, men are drifting toward the Republican Party

Black voters continue to support Democrats by overwhelming margins, but Trump has made inroads among black men.

In a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of black voters in MichiganWomen supported Harris by 72 points, while Trump scored a negligible 4 points. But 13% of black men backed Trump, eroding Harris’ lead to 53 points — still a huge lead, but a lower margin that Democrats have been counting on among the party’s most loyal supporters.

George Powell, 30, a black voter from Lansing, Michigan, is a Democrat, but he has not yet decided on a candidate.

“I think Kamala, but I’m not sure,” the machine operator said in an interview after being polled in the national poll. “I feel like she’s the better option, but I’m not in favor of either candidate.”

In Pennsylvania, the black gender gap was even wider.

Women supported Harris by 71 points (78% to 7%), a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of black voters showed, while men supported her by 48 points, with Harris at 63% and Trump at 15%.

The polls of 500 black voters in each state were conducted via landline and cell phone from August 11 to 14. The margin of error for the analysis by gender is approximately 6 points.

Which issues are most important?

Both men and women say the economy and inflation are the most important issues this year, although men rank this higher: 34% compared to 26% for women.

Then the disagreements begin.

Women give abortion and women’s rights a strong second place, at 17%.

Men rank abortion and women’s rights a distant seventh, mentioned by only 2%. It tracked immigration, democracy, honesty/integrity, policy positions and foreign affairs.

The national survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by landline and mobile phone from October 14 to 18, has a margin of error of 3.1 points.

No girls/boys allowed?

Are men welcome in the Democratic Party? Are women welcome in the GOP?

Voters are divided on this.

In the national USA TODAY poll, respondents were 45% yes and 44% no when asked whether the Democratic Party cared more about issues affecting women than those affecting men. The gap was 43% yes, 48% no, when asked whether the Republican Party cared more about issues important to men than women.

One group saw the Republican Party primarily as a boys’ club: Three-quarters of Harris voters said Republicans cared more about issues affecting men.

The whole debate can be charged.

“We just don’t talk about it,” said Denise Oberlies, 59, a Republican and Trump supporter from Smithtown, New York, when asked if she has noticed a political gender gap among her colleagues at work. “If I want to continue friendships and, you know, work relationships, to some extent, you just have to not discuss certain things with certain people.”