NCAAF player props and best bets

Prop bet #1: Daniel Jackson 61+ receiving yards

It may surprise some people to hear that the Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 28th in pass rate (56%). Typically a team that keeps things grounded at all costs, PJ Fleck’s squad made a concerted effort to get quarterback Max Brosmer to swing the rock.

Brosmer’s favorite pass catcher has been Daniel Jacksonwho has double the targets (61) of any other wide receiver in Minnesota. The books have Jackson’s receiving yardage set at 61 for Week 9, and I’m buying the Over given the number of targets he receives.

This also qualifies as a favorable match against a Maryland turtles defense that has struggled to stop teams in the air, ranking 92nd in EPA per pass, 74th in passing percentage and 80th in passing explosiveness. The Terps have had a lot of turnover in the secondary over the past two years and have been unable to replace the lost production with a player of the same caliber.

It doesn’t help that they haven’t rushed the passer with much success, logging in at 88th up front – seven havoc and 98th in sacks per game (1.5). Brosmer should see time in his pocket if he drops back, and Minnesota’s passing game should expect an above-average performance given the matchup.

Jackson averaged 63.9 yards per game a year ago and is at 64.4 yards per game this year. Given the passing attack predictions for an above-average game, that would be good news for his Over.

He was in disarray to start the year and was notably a decision during game time for the opener against North Carolina. Excluding the first two games of the year, when Jackson saw season-lows in targets due to his health, the fifth-year is averaging 71.2 receiving yards.

That number is more in line with what I can expect from Jackson in the future and I will buy his Over for a short issue.

Prop Bet No. 2: Avery Johnson Over 40.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

It’s time for the Sunflower Showdown in week 9 Kansas Jayhawks facing number 16 Wildcats from the state of Kansas. One player I’m referring to is the Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnsonwho is a dangerous dual threat that can take you down in the air or on the ground.

It was a shaky start at some points this year as the first-year starter had a few hiccups, but overall this offense was moving and swinging. Kansas State averages 6.9 yards per play offensively while ranking ninth in EPA per play and 16th in passing percentage.

They should have success moving the chains against a Kansas defense that checks in at 81st in EPA per game and 93rd in success rate. The Jayhawks were especially sensitive to opponent ground games, ranking 110th in EPA per rush and 110th in rushing success rate.

The problems stem from a defensive front (117th in line yards, 127th in stuff rate, 126th in power conversion rate) that should be outpaced by Kansas State’s effective offensive line (ninth in line yards, 12th in front-seven havoc). It would be very surprising if the Wildcats don’t enter this game with impunity.

Avery’s rushing yardage support is set at just 40.5, so I’m buying the Over. He has eclipsed that number in three of his last five games, and there isn’t much of a threat of him losing yardage on sacks as the Jayhawks rank 89th in PFF’s pass-rushing metric .

Johnson is an elite threat for a quarterback and his legs are used when his team needs them. That wasn’t the case a week ago in the 45-18 win over West Virginia, but he will likely be counted on more in Saturday’s rivalry.

Prop bet #3: Evan Stewart 57+ receiving yards

Best odds: -125 at DraftKings

There will be a rankings-by-ranking this weekend in Eugene as #20 Illinois battles Illini facing the number 1 Oregon ducks in Big Ten play.

Wide receiver Evan Stewart has come alive for the Ducks of late, catching 11 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. The Texas A&M transfer was believed to be an integral part of the offense entering the season, and after a slow start, it appears he has fully developed into a dangerous weapon.

We know the former five-star prospect has talent, and that was evident when he caught 53 passes for 649 yards and two scores as a true freshman in 2022. However, it’s been a tumultuous year and a half since then, as his grades dropped. something a year ago (38 receptions for 514 yards and four scores) and preceded by a slow start this year.

Well, that all seems to be in the past, and Stewart is locked into a full-time role for one of the best offenses in the country. The Ducks rank ninth in success rate and should have a significant advantage over an Illinois defense that comes in at 118th.

The Illini are nothing special in the secondary (102nd in success rate) and don’t create much pressure up front (81st in front seven havoc, 129th in line yards). Like Stewart, Dillon Gabriel should have time in his pocket to operate and find his receivers.