Regression Files Week 9: Can Baker Mayfield and Ladd McConkey Continue to Produce?

Identifying players who have been particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space during the 2024 NFL season.

It won’t always be possible to find boys who are ‘on time’, as my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we continue to find NFL players who have beaten their odds and those who have been on the wrong side of what we will call variance. Because ‘happiness’ is so crude and unsophisticated.

Let’s get into it.

Candidates for positive regression

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

It doesn’t feel great to include as a positive regression candidate the quarterback who ranks fourth in drop-back success this season. But I have to. The numbers leave me no choice.

Only six quarterbacks have more passing yards than Rodgers over the last four weeks in a Jets offense with a staggering 69 percent dropback rate over that stretch. However, the touchdowns weren’t there for old A-Rod. He has posted a modest 3.2 percent touchdown rate since Week 4, mostly going cold on his red zone attempts.

If the Jets remain a pass-first offense, Rodgers has a good chance to capitalize on a touchdown bump in the coming weeks. He sees a large number of high-leverage pass attempts: Only Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have more throws inside the 20 than Rodgers in Week 8.

Geno Smith (SEA)

I’m sick of it, you’re sick of it, we’re all sick of it. But Geno remains in the positive regression column because man, this guy gains a lot of yards without a lot of touchdowns.

To give you an idea of ​​how incredibly cold Geno is, he has thrown one (1) touchdown per 282 yards over the last five games. His 2.6 percent touchdown rate is the third-lowest in the NFL and well below his 4.5 percent rate over the past two seasons. Passing yardage accounted for 75 percent of Seattle’s total yardage through Week 8, and the Seahawks’ success rate of 9.2 percent above expectations leads the NFL by a wide margin.

I don’t think Geno can defy the math for much longer. We’ll see.

Run back

Bucky Irvin (TB)

Irving is clearly the Bucs’ best running back and is proving to be a more efficient rusher and pass catcher than backfield mate Rachaad White.

An underrated part of Irving’s fantasy story is his involvement in the red and green zones. Irving, who had 84 yards on 16 touches against Atlanta last week, has more inside-the-five rushes than all but three running backs. His 12 inside-the-10 ranks ninth among backs, though he has just three scores on those rushes.

With a rush that exceeds expected power, Irving is almost a must-start in 12-team formats with so many valuable touches in the big-play offense in Tampa. Irving has been targeted on 19 percent of his routes, a good indication that Baker Mayfield — who targeted running backs 14 times in Week 7 — will continue to reward Irving in the passing game.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

Stevenson got there for fantasy purposes in Week 8 while averaging a breathtakingly terrible 2.4 yards per carry against the run funnel Jets defense. See: the power of two touchdowns.

It’s clear the Patriots want to lean hard on the run if the game script allows it. That was the theory behind playing Stevenson against New York last week, and since the Jets stink, it worked. On an offense with a neutral 52 percent success rate – fifth lowest in the NFL – Stevenson should see fantastic rushing volume and some passing game involvement in games with decent play script. One such game could be available in Week 9 against the inscrutable Titans.

Wide receiver

Amari Cooper (BUF)

Cooper has just five catches for 69 scoreless yards in two games with the Bills. He ran something close to a full route share against the Seahawks in Week 8 and saw two looks from Josh Allen. It wasn’t great for those (me) who thought Cooper showed glimpses of target dominance to come in Week 7.

Cooper has been targeted on a not entirely hateful 19 percent of his pass routes in two games with Buffalo. He is second on the team (behind Keon Coleman) in air yards during those two outings. It hasn’t all been bad for the veteran.

The bull case for Cooper could lie in the new Bills offense. They were 14 percent higher than their expected success rate (PROE) in week 7 and 1 percent higher than in week 8. That’s in stark contrast to their -4 percent PROE before Cooper’s arrival. I would caution that Cooper drafters don’t give up on their man just yet.

Calvin Ridley (TEN)

I’m putting Ridley in this positive regression room not because I think he can improve on last week’s 10-catch, 113-yard performance against the Lions, but because I think the kind of opportunity Ridley saw against Detroit will be the new norm are in the post-Hopkins Tennessee offense.

Only three players have accumulated more air yards than Ridley since Week 5. In Week 8, Ridley ranked ninth in air yards (137) and saw an absurd target share of 39.5 percent. This came after Titans coaches said they were done forcing the ball to Ridley. That’s how it goes.

I mentioned Ridley in the Funnel Defense Report last week as a possible beneficiary of the new Titans offense without DeAndre Hopkins in a matchup against one of the NFL’s most prolific pass funnel defenses in Detroit. Luckily for Ridley, the Titans stink and will spend much of the remainder of the regular season chasing points. He should be locked into 12-team lineups.

Tyreek Heuvel (MIA)

You’re inconsolable after Hill’s dismal fantasy day against the Cardinals in Week 8, in what should have been Tua’s glorious return and Hill’s dominance that has sunk your team this season. You had 72 scoreless yards on six grabs against Arizona. The pain knows no bounds.

I’ll try to calm you down with this: Hill led the Dolphins with a 49 percent air yards share and a 24 percent target share against the Cardinals. Miami was 1 percent above expected success rate — a marked increase from how averse they were with Tua out of the lineup. Don’t go crazy and bench Hill in Week 9. And don’t trade it in unless you get a legitimate offer. He’s coming by.

Tight end

Dalton Schultz (HOU)

With Stefon Diggs down with a knee injury, the Texans have no choice but to put Schultz at the center of their (somewhat depressing) passing attack. We’ve seen Schultz’s chances increase with Nico Collins (hamstring) sidelined: only seven tight ends have more targets than Schultz (17) since Week 6. He’s also in the top-10 in tight end pass routes .

Importantly, Schultz runs about 60 percent of his routes from the slot (a higher percentage than all but five tight ends in the past three weeks). Tight ends, as you may know, tend to yield more fantasy points when operating from the slot. Schultz has a real chance to enter the top 10 in the coming weeks based on volume alone. With an average target depth of 8, it profiles as a legitimate PPR scam, which we really like.

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Candidates for negative regression

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (TB)

That Baker is suddenly an indisputably elite fantasy option should make your fantasy football senses tingle. Or maybe you sat on the toilet too long checking your lineups and your legs went numb. Either way, something isn’t quite right with Mayfield’s production lately.

Mayfield has thrown for a touchdown on 7.6 percent of his attempts over the past four games. That includes at least three touchdowns in each of his past four outings. This could have to do with Tampa’s defense on the bottom giving the offense no choice but to rip it through the air; only the Seahawks and Bengals have a higher success rate than expected for the season. Still, Mayfield — whose career TD rate is 4.8 percent — is unsustainably popular right now.

Don’t be cute and start Mayfield with the game’s best QB plays in Week 9.

Wide receiver

Ladd McConkey (LAC)

I mentioned McConkey in last week’s column as a candidate for positive regression, especially since the Chargers have unusually passed first in recent weeks. That trend continued (to some extent) in Week 8 against the Saints, as the Bolts were 3 percent above their expected dropback rate.

I’m writing this to make you feel bad for being excited to start McConkey after he caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns (and almost scored a third touchdown) against a lifeless New Orleans offense. Ladd’s 20 percent target share against the Saints wasn’t exactly sparkling, nor were his 73 air yards, which ranked second among LA pass catchers on the day.

It’s not like you can’t start McConkey as a WR3 in 12-team formats. That’s possible. I will allow it. His target of 23.5 percent per route is on the strong side. Just don’t go crazy and treat McConkey as a locked and loaded WR2 option.

Tight end

Mark Andrews (BAL)

Andrews, as you probably know, has four touchdowns on his last thirteen targets. That’s enough to wake the Regression Reaper from its slumber.

It’s not like Andrews has become the focal point of Baltimore’s passing offense. Before Week 6, when his hot streak began, Andrews was targeted on 16 percent of his pass routes. That has risen to 18.5 percent in the past three weeks. That’s hardly worth mentioning. While Andrews’ involvement in the red zone is fun, his spreadsheet-crushing efficiency may not last long.

On his six red zone targets in 2024, Andrews has a whopping six receptions for four touchdowns. Isaiah Probably, meanwhile, has ten inside-the-20 looks of Lamar Jackson and seven inside the ten. Be careful with Andrews in week 9 and beyond.

Tucker Kraft Paper (GB)

Kraft is erratic, a born playmaker, Kittle-like in the chaos with which he plays. Kraft is good, maybe very good, and in a slightly heavier attack with a slightly more condensed target distribution he would be dominant. Unfortunately, that’s not his situation in 2024.

Since Week 5, Kraft is 22nd in tight end targets (16) and fifth in tight end receiving yards (212). His 17.7 yards per reception ranks first among all tight ends over that span, as does his yards after catch per reception. Kraft does what good players do: make the most of limited opportunities.

You probably have no choice but to start Kraft, but I wouldn’t consider him among the game’s elite tight end unless and until he takes on a bigger role in the deliberately spread Green Bay transition offense. It’s not that Kraft is a reliable target commander; he’s seen a target on a paltry 14 percent of his pass routes in Week 8. He’s a bona fide boom-bust option until further notice.