Why it would be difficult for Trump to overturn the 2024 election results

Donald Trump has increased his baseless accusations that Democrats are plotting to “cheat” or “steal” the election, raising fears that the former president is paving the way for an attempt to undo the result if Vice President Kamala Harris wins.

But any attempt to derail the election process would face a series of new guardrails this time, legal experts say, making it unlikely such an effort would succeed. The new protections include: an election law Congress passed in the wake of the January 6 insurrection, recent court decisionsincreased vigilance from state election officials and more aggressive law enforcement by agencies determined to prevent a repeat of violent scenes from the U.S. Capitol four years ago.

“This time it’s very difficult,” said law professor Richard Hasen, an election expert at UCLA.

In 2020, Trump issued similar warnings before the vote. When he lost to Joe Biden, he lobbied officials in swing states to overturn the results, filing a series of lawsuits alleging fraud and demanding that his vice president, Mike Pence, refuse to announce the result.

But administration officials resisted his pressure, judges dismissed his team’s lawsuits, and Pence defied Trump and carried out his constitutional duty to certify the vote results.

Unlike in 2020, Trump is no longer the president and does not have the power of the executive branch. And the bipartisanship Electoral Reform Actpassed in 2022, has tightened the process for casting and counting electoral votes, given federal courts a clear role to quickly resolve disputes and made it harder for lawmakers to raise frivolous objections.

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Some attempts by pro-Trump groups to change the way votes are counted and certified have already failed, with judges striking down the measures as illegal and unconstitutional. Last week, Georgia’s Supreme Court rejected an effort by pro-Trump Republicans to introduce new election laws in the state, including one that would have required hand counting of ballots and others that would have slowed the certification process.

If Trump were to challenge the election results, he would have two possible paths to overturning the results, and both paths are “long shots,” said Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law School.

One would be to try to delay the certification of results in certain provinces or states by alleging irregularities or making other claims. Dozens of state and local election officials are now in office in swing states that have openly rejected the 2020 results, raising the possibility that they could refuse to certify vote counts or cause other delays.

But such efforts would most likely fail, legal experts said. Secretaries of state and attorneys general in key states like Pennsylvania and Arizona have vowed to take local governments to court if they try to delay the process.

“There may still be people who want to engage in these tricks,” said Gowri Ramachandran of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law. “But I think ultimately some combination of state election officials, the attorneys general, who often represent them in court, and the courts themselves will tell people to just do their job and certify the right results.”

Last month, top officials in three swing states – Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin – Said they are prepared to take local governments to court if they refuse to certify the results.

“We would immediately take them to court to force them to certify their election results, and we are confident – because of how clear Pennsylvania election law is – that the courts will quickly require counties to certify their election results,” said Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State. said Al Schmidt.

The other path for Trump would be to try to overturn the results in the House of Representatives and the Senate. First, he would need Republicans to gain control of both chambers and declare the Electoral Count Reform Act unconstitutional. In that scenario, the Trump team would try to convince Republican-controlled state legislatures to send competing voter rolls, even though that is the legal role of governors.

The approach would require securing electoral victories in both chambers of Congress and in state legislatures such as those of Pennsylvania or Michigan. Currently, control of Pennsylvania’s legislature is split between the two parties, and Democrats rule in Michigan’s legislature.

The key figure in that scenario would be the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who could potentially prevent any candidate from gaining a majority in the Electoral College. That would force a contingent election in the House of Representatives to choose the next president, with each state delegation having one vote. Republicans maintain an edge and control more state delegations.

If all these political pieces fell into place, organizers would be betting that the Supreme Court would rule in their favor and uphold their violation of a federal election law.

Matthew Sanderson, an elections attorney based in Washington, D.C., said he thinks this scenario is extremely unlikely to play out.

“Even if Republicans win a slim majority in the new Congress on January 3,” he said by email, “I find it incredibly difficult to believe that large numbers of Republican senators and members of the House of Representatives who recently co-sponsored were of and voted for the Electoral De Count Reform Act would pass a resolution calling it ‘unconstitutional’ within days ahead of the joint session on January 6.”

But even if that were to happen, Sanderson said, Congress can’t simply declare its previous laws “unconstitutional.”

“There is no mechanism to do that,” he said. “Congress can only repeal its prior laws, and a joint resolution of Congress would repeal nothing. On that basis, I think even a conservative Supreme Court would say that the Electoral Count Act (as reformed) would control the process.”

Armed groups and election chaos

Despite the obstacles to a legal path that could overturn the election results, Trump’s volatile rhetoric has raised concerns among federal, state and local officials about a potentially protracted post-Election Day crisis and possible political violence at polling places or in state capitals the states.

Trump’s words risk inflaming armed groups that responded to his rhetoric four years ago by storming the Capitol and attacking police officers, according to former law enforcement officers and researchers who track the groups.

With the election expected to be decided by a razor-thin margin, it could take days or even weeks before a clear winner is declared. And officials worry that a period of uncertainty could provide an opportunity for armed groups to foment chaos or violence.

Anti-government militias and other like-minded groups are organizing and recruiting on social media at a scale and pace not seen since the events leading up to January 6, 2021, said Frank Figliuzzi, a former deputy director for counterintelligence at the FBI. , who contributes national security for NBC News.

The FBI, state election authorities and local law enforcement agencies want to prevent a repeat of January 6 and are taking extensive precautions to safeguard the counting of votes and fend off any attempt to derail the process. Given the heightened security risk, some state officials have made plans to scrap public, high-profile ceremonies certifying election results in state capitols.

Election officials across the country have done so, too strengthened security at polling stations, including increasing police presence and issuing body armor to election workers. In Maricopa County, Arizona, there will be a tabulation center snipers on the roofdrones flying overhead and security cameras and spotlights to help police monitor the area, officials told NBC News.

The Department of Homeland Security has labeled the Jan. 6 session of Congress, where lawmakers will certify the electoral vote for a president, a “national special security event.” That puts it on the same level of security as major events like the Super Bowl or the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.

“The FBI is well prepared for an iconic attack in Washington,” Figliuzzi said.

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Unlike the last presidential election, the risk of violence is likely greater in a capital or provincial capital than in Washington, he said.

“I see that the soft targets are in danger,” he said. “I see local, provincial and state entities being threatened. That’s where the action happens, and honestly that could be the weakest link.”

Meanwhile, Trump continues to spread falsehoods that Democrats are planning to change the election results.

That gamble failed four years ago, and some of those who joined the effort — including Trump supporters who signed up to falsify voter rolls for him — were prosecuted.

“Last time people didn’t go along with it. State officials resisted. State lawmakers have resisted,” said Hasen of UCLA. “And of course some of the people who got involved have been charged with crimes. So that should be a deterrent for some people.”

Given the legal and political hurdles facing any attempt to reject and overturn the outcome of the election, what is the best option for Trump to return to power? Win the election legally and legitimately, Hasen said.

This story first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News: