Lies, damn lies and CT crime statistics

The quote ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics’ is usually attributed to the British statesman Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881). I remembered this quote after reading a recent newspaper article in which the reporter attempted to make a compelling argument that crime has decreased in Connecticut by citing statistics and interviewing a professor at the University of New Haven (who previously served as Democratic member of the Connecticut House of Connecticut served). Representatives from 1986 to 2011).

The article cited poll numbers by Ben Proto, the current Republican Party chairman of Connecticut, who stated that it is “…one of the top three or four issues…” that citizens are most concerned about. But the This is reported by Pew Research Center that in 2022, “about six-in-ten registered voters (61%) say violent crime is very important in making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections.”

Greg Dillon

This is the same argument that is often used to undermine the debate about contemporary economics. “Inflation? Nonsense, we’ve always had inflation! Higher fuel prices? Gasoline prices are going down! Grocery costs? Food has always been expensive!” The problem is – just like with crime – no reasonable, clear-headed person actually believes this. We believe what we experience, what we see, what we hear.

The lack of clarity in recent crime statistics has several causes. Here it is something like this has been reported by The Marshall Project:

“The uncertainty stems largely from the fact that the 2021 data was more incomplete than any in recent history. Comprehensive FBI data relies on voluntary submissions from law enforcement agencies (there are approximately 18,000 in the US). This year, approximately 7,000 law enforcement officers have gone missing, covering approximately 35% of the U.S. population.”

Two of the nation’s largest police departments — New York City and Los Angeles — have not reported their crime statistics. Additionally, the article says, “Some entire states, including California and Florida, sent virtually no data.”

Sean Kennedy and Mark Morgan (a former Assistant FBI Director) published an article in The Washington Examiner in 2024 entitled “Bad FBI data misleads about crime:”

“In reality, violent crime has increased substantially from 2019 levels. Homicide rates remain high in major cities, up 23% since 2019 across all 70 cities tracked by the MCCA (Major Cities Chiefs Association ) and an increase of 18% according to an analysis of 32 cities by the nonprofit Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). . For aggravated assaults, CCJ’s sample of 25 cities found these increased by 8%, while the larger MCCA sample of cities reported a 26% increase over the same period.’

As for Connecticut, the statistics cannot be trusted because of the way crime is reported (or not). I have contacted many police officers across the state who have confirmed this. Many victims of car burglaries don’t bother to report the crime if their vehicles are not heavily damaged or if nothing of significant value has been stolen. Additionally, when thieves target multiple vehicles in a parking lot, commercial garage, or residential street, often only one complaint number is issued for the incident. This means that up to 20 cars may have been broken into and statistically reported as one incident. This will lower the numbers for that city or municipality.

The same goes for shoplifting. Many retail chains and franchises have policies that prohibit store employees from intervening in shoplifting and theft incidents. Does this mean that shoplifting has decreased? Of course not. Only the reporting of thefts has decreased. This statistic becomes meaningless when reported by law enforcement agencies because it does not reflect actual crime or accurate crime reporting.

This same game is routinely played in motor vehicle violations. Who in their right mind thinks that there are fewer dangerous drivers on the road today than ever? When we look at the number of traffic fines issued and arrests for driving under the influence, speeding or reckless behavior, the numbers do not reflect that. Why? Because according to the CT data work together: “In 2022, a total of 313,346 traffic stops were conducted by police departments in Connecticut. This represents a 39% decrease in the number of traffic stops compared to 2019.”

When you reduce the number of traffic stops by almost 40 percent, you obviously reduce the number of violations and arrests. This does not mean that the number of violations themselves has decreased, only the registration and reporting of those violations.

Think of the numerous street takeovers we have all witnessed in our state. The most recent was in September 2024, involving more than 100 motorcycles. According to the Independent New HavenThese vehicles were: “…performing various stunts and blocking all lanes of southbound I-95 in the New Haven, West Haven, Orange, Milford, and Stratford areas.”

It gets better. When police tried to stop a pickup truck leading the pack while filming the stunts, the article reported:

“At the same time, a number of motorcycles began to surround the Trooper’s cruiser, deliberately disrupting the Trooper’s attempts to stop the GMC and at times almost hitting the cruiser. The operator of the GMC failed to stop and continued traveling south on I-95 at a high rate of speed. To avoid a potential risk to the public and involved parties, the Trooper disabled their cruiser’s emergency lights and siren and broke away from the vehicle.

The truck was eventually located and stopped in upstate New York and two men were arrested. In a single incident, more than 100 vehicles repeatedly violated multiple traffic laws in numerous cities, and zero tickets were issued. None of this will ever be reflected in any statistics.

While we are still in the process of churning out statistics, here is another interesting fact that may help explain why violent crime is reported to be down. This statistic comes from the Connecticut Office of Policy Management (OPM). “Nationally, crime continues to be under-reported, with only two in five (42%) violent victims estimated to be reported to police in 2022.”

And if crime has actually declined in Connecticut, why is OPM reporting: “6% more criminal cases were added to the courts for the geographic region (GA) in 2023 than in FY 2022.”

Excerpts from a report from the CT Office of Policy and Management. Credit: CT Bureau for Policy and Management

I searched the internet for homicide in Hartford. Here’s what came up on the first page of my search: “Top Stories of 2021: Hartford has deadliest year since 2003” (Hartford Courant); “With 35 murders, Hartford 2022 total murders in 19 years” (CT Insider); Hartford grapples with City’s eighth homicide in 10 days” (CT Insider, 2023). Do these headlines reflect a downward shift in violent crime?

And if you think you’re safer because you’re lucky enough not to call Hartford home, this just happened to a 22-year-old kidnapping victim in the coastal community of Branford in September, according to Fox 61 News:

“The victim’s hair was set on fire, his back was cut with a knife and he was shot several times with a BB gun over the course of three hours, according to police. There are also indications that he was sexually abused, police said. When officers interviewed the victim at Yale New Haven Hospital, they said his eyes were swollen shut, his front teeth were missing and he was being treated for lung damage.

Fortunately, three people were arrested for this horrific atrocity: an adult (from Hartford) and two juveniles.

Call me a skeptic, but it will take more than cherry-picking numbers from flawed statistics and conflicting data to convince me that crime has declined. Seeing is believing, and everything I watch on the news or read online tells me that crime – in Connecticut and nationally – is on the rise.