'We're teetering on a planetary tightrope': Halve emissions now to avoid climate catastrophe, UN warns

Global temperatures will rise to 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if governments do not set more ambitious climate goals, a new United Nations (UN) report warns.

Warming on this scale is more than twice the 1.5 degrees Celsius target outlined in the 2015 report. Paris Agreement – a legally binding treaty climate change adopted by 196 countries – and it would be plunging the world headlong into a climate disaster.

Current levels of human-induced warming are about 1.3 C (2.3 F) above pre-industrial levels, meaning we could reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in less than a decade, according to the UN’s annual report. Emission Shortfall Reporthighlighting the gap between countries’ commitments and cuts greenhouse gas emissions needed to prevent a climate crisis.

“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope,” said UN Secretary General António Guterres said in a speech after the report’s publication on October 24. “This report shows that annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, increasing by 1.3% last year. They must fall by 9% every year until 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 C and avoid the worst of climate change.”

Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 63 gigatonnes of ‘carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent’ in 2023, which the report found is 0.8 gigatonnes – or 1.3% – higher than 2022 levels. (One gigatonne is equivalent to 10,000 full loaded American aircraft carriers NASA(and CO2 equivalent is a measure that takes into account the potential warming effects of various greenhouse gases.) This rate of increase exceeds the rates observed before the Covid-19 pandemic between 2010 and 2019, when year-on-year growth averaged 0.8%. The new peak in emissions reflects a return to pre-pandemic activity levels in the industrial and transport sectors.

Hopes of keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius target alive depend on countries collectively cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035, the report said. But current promises for future action are not drastic enough to mitigate its effects worst consequences of climate change.

“There is a direct link between rising emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters,” Guterres said. “People all over the world are paying a terrible price.”

The report’s findings come two weeks ahead of the annual climate summit of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP) on November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Leaders from around the world will meet to build on an agreement reached last year transition away from fossil fuelsand many hope that these negotiations will lead to more ambitious, country-specific climate goals.

Emissions Gap Report 2024 – A message from UN Secretary General António Guterres – YouTube
Emissions Gap Report 2024 - A message from UN Secretary General António Guterres - YouTube

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“When we look at progress towards the 2030 targets, especially from G20 member states, they have not made much progress towards their current 2030 climate targets,” Anne Olhoffsaid chief climate advisor at the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and chief scientific editor of the new report Reuters. (The G20 is a forum for the world’s largest economies.)

The report refers to individual countries’ climate targets as ‘Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)’. The Paris Agreement requires NDCs to be updated every five years, and the next deadline is February 2025.

“Today’s report shows that affordable, existing technologies can deliver the emissions reductions we need to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit (by) 2030 and 2035, but only with a wave of ambition and support,” said Guterres.

Inger Andersenthe UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of UNEP, urged countries to look at the upcoming COP29 conference as inspiration for bold action. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” Andersen told Reuters.