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Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

Posted on by Larry
Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

The tight situation is as disappointing as ever. Things never really change. This feature keeps fantasy managers wanting more. The problem is that probably won’t happen this season.

In this article, we examine four tight ends whose values ​​have risen or fallen in recent weeks. Through this in-depth exercise, we will determine what to do with these four specific tight ends and how to rate them for the remainder of the season.

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Is this the end for Mark Andrews?

The Baltimore Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson this week, which will certainly shake up Baltimore’s offense, but what does it mean for Andrews?

To put it bluntly, fantasy managers should be very concerned. Andrews has had a resurgence over the past four weeks, with his half-PPR PPG average rising to 12.9. It was 2.4 PPG through the first four weeks of the season. A large portion of that production, 46.3%, comes from four touchdowns.

His route participation in weeks 5-7 was similar to that in weeks 1-4, suggesting increased production is likely more of a challenge than what’s yet to come. It should be noted that his route participation in Week 8 ultimately exceeded the 70% threshold for the first time this season.

Still, his snap share and route participation are well below what fantasy managers have come to expect from Andrews, and that was before the team traded for Johnson. This season, Baltimore was down to 11 personnel just 28.1% of the time, the lowest in the NFL.

This trade could increase personnel usage, resulting in even lighter boxes for Derrick Henry. For Andrews, however, this could mean fewer snaps. Andrews was in the closing frame for 57.1% of his shots. When the Ravens go with 11 men, they often use Andrews as their wide slot receiver and Isaiah Likely as their in-line tight end. With Johnson on board, the team could use Zay Flowers, an easily twitchy athlete, in place of Andrews.

Ignoring the fact that there’s a good chance his routes and snaps are further off this trade, we haven’t discussed the increased target competition, which is a big deal. Baltimore ranks 31st in pass attempts, averaging 29 passes per game.

Flowers is averaging 7.63 targets per game. Johnson scores an average of 8.29. From 2020-24, Johnson has averaged 8.89 goals per game. Based on this, it shouldn’t be shocking to see Flowers and Johnson owning 50% of the target share going forward.

This offense could look very similar to Philadelphia’s, with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith dominating the target share. That greatly hinders Dallas Goedert, who is still in his prime. Andries is no more. Andrews now drops to third in Lamar Jackson’s goaltending hierarchy, and for a team that only passes the ball 29 times, that’s a major red flag. Not only that, but how confident are we that he will always be the number 3?

Right now, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely have a higher goal-per-game average than Andrews. While Andrews has stepped up in recent weeks, even though he has solidified his place ahead of these two guys, he still shouldn’t be viewed as anything other than a mid-TE2.

This trade could spell disaster for Andrews’ fantasy value for the remainder of the season. He has lived on touchdowns the last four weeks, but with this trade reducing his potential volume, he becomes even more dependent on touchdowns. If you can sell it, you should sell it. Now.

I’m not sure how good Otton is. He’s certainly good enough to take advantage of an incredible situation, that’s for sure. Jake Ferguson was in a similar spot last year. Austin Hooper did that in Atlanta. I would advise being cautious about sticking Otton with elite tight ends, but his situation is as elite as it gets.

Ferguson is an excellent comparison to Oton. Both tight ends lacked target competition from any receiver. While Ferguson has CeeDee Lamb, Otton has no real receiver competition, although Mike Evans will eventually return. Both offenses were extremely tough, not only in terms of the raw pass rate, but also in the success rate above expected success rate and the success rate in neutral situations. Both teams rely heavily on their passing attack.

They also have quarterbacks coming out. That doesn’t apply to Ferguson this year, but he has been a fantasy darling over the last two seasons. Baker Mayfield is playing crazy this year. With Chris Godwin done for the year and Evans on the mend through Week 12, including their Week 11 bye, Oton should remain very involved in the passing game for the rest of the season.

In Week 7, Godwin played 85% of the snaps before suffering a late injury. Evans played only 28%. Tampa Bay trailed Baltimore early, forcing the Buccaneers to pass. As a result, Mayfield finished with 45 pass attempts. Otton did his part.

He had 10 targets, eight receptions and 100 yards, finishing with 14.0 half PPR points and a 22.2% target share. Evans and Godwin combined for 12 targets, eight receptions, 90 yards and one touchdown. The following week, the first game without one of its standout receivers, Tampa Bay was still passing the ball at an incredibly fast rate. Mayfield finished with 50 pass attempts for Tampa Bay and played catch-up again against the Atlanta Falcons.

Otton had 10 targets, nine receptions, 81 yards and two touchdowns on his way to 24.6 half PPR points and a target share of 20.0%. Target shares of 20.0% and higher are excellent, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Mayfield to continue throwing the ball 45 and 51 times per game.

Before these two games, Tampa Bay was averaging 31.5 pass attempts per game. In weeks 7-8 there were an average of 47.5 attempts. Assuming this levels off in the coming weeks, Otton’s target volume will also decrease.

Thanks to his environment, Otton has landed on the cusp of the top-12 tight end rankings for the remainder of the season. I could reasonably see it between TE11 and TE14. Given that and his production over the past two weeks, he could be a great candidate for a high sell.

If you can trade Oton for someone like Dalton Kincaid and get an upgrade elsewhere in your starting lineup, I would do so. Oton will be a solid pickup, but he’s not a league winner. Tight ends rarely are.

Is the real competition winner Evan Engram?

Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone and being out for a year could have major ramifications for Engram. Over the past two seasons, Engram played 16 games with Kirk and five without. The splits, courtesy of RotoViz, can be seen below.

Five games is a small example, but the results are amazing. Engram saw a 73.3% increase in its half PPR PPG average. He also experienced a 44.6% increase in targets, a 41.1% increase in receptions, a 45.7% increase in yards, and a 400% increase in touchdowns per game.

Engram’s average of 14.84 half PPR PPG without Kirk would make him TE2 for the season. That number would be 4.0 more PPG (37% more) than TE3 and 7.1 more PPG (92%) than TE12.

Since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 6, Engram has scored 20 goals. He is averaging 6.7 goals per game, which puts him on pace for 113 goals. That was with Kirk on the field. His advantage is now even greater.

Engram can potentially be the league winner for the rest of the season, especially given how bad the tight end situation is.

Should we continue to trust Jake Ferguson?

Ferguson currently ranks fourth in goals per game among tight ends this season, averaging 7.0 per game. He is fifth in receptions per game at 5.17, but he is only 10th in yards per game at 43.8. He currently sits just 16th with a 7.0 half-PPR PPG average.

Last year he had 23 red zone targets. This year he has only three in six games. That’s down from 1.35 red zone targets per game last year to 0.50 this year, a drop of 170%. Fantasy managers may remember a similar trend last year.

In Weeks 1 through 6 last year, before the Week 7 bye, Ferguson averaged just 5.9 half PPR PPG. After the bye, Ferguson averaged 9.6 half PPR PPG from weeks 8 through 17, which equates to the TE7. Fantasy managers are hoping a similar trend will happen this season, and there’s reason to be optimistic.

Some of these numbers aren’t that different from this year. His average depth of target (aDOT) this year was 5.0 and his yards per target averaged 7.5. Ferguson had a much better second half of the season and the hope is that this will happen again. There’s no guarantee this will happen, but as of now, fantasy managers should continue to start Ferguson.

Its volume and capabilities are elite. The Dallas offense has virtually no run game and its defense was suspect. This will continue to make the Dallas offense extremely woeful. The lack of reliable options behind CeeDee Lamb will keep Ferguson busy. Hopefully this will lead to some more fantasy points soon.

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