Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by an expert football model

In a marquee Big Ten matchup, No. 3 Penn State plays host to No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday in a bombshell showdown with possible national title implications. Let’s take a look at the latest pre-match prediction from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State is one point away from going undefeated after its loss at Oregon, pulling away from upset Nebraska last week, where it stood at 3-1 in Big Ten play entering November with little to no room for error in his national championship aspirations.

One of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football, Penn State is 7-0 this year and has decisive home field advantage as head coach James Franklin looks to end his losing streak to top-five teams and move into College Football. Playoff photo.

What do the analytical models suggest if the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions meet in this Big Ten battle?

Before that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get an example of how Ohio State and Penn State stack up in this Week 10 college football matchup.

So far, the models give the Buckeyes the edge in this road test, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will beat Penn State by an expected score of 25 to 24 and will win the matchup with a expected margin of 1.5 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes closure 54 percent chance of an outright victory over the Nittany Lions.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? Year to date, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) this past weekend.

The state of Ohio is one 3.5 points favorite against Penn State, according to the updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (over -110, under -110).

And it set up the moneyline odds for Ohio State -162 and for Penn State +134 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you must take into account…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a large number of bettors who expect the Nittany Lions to challenge the Buckeyes for those 3.5 points, according to the most recent consensus picks for the game.

Penn State gets 62 percent number of bets to either win the game outright in the event of an upset, or to keep the final score below 4 points in the event of a possible loss.

The other 38 percent of betting project Ohio State will win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

Ohio State has been 28.4 points better then opponents are average so far this season, when you take into account the scoring margins in wins and losses.

Penn State has been 19 points better than the competition average in 2024.

However, in the past three games, those numbers have come much closer.

The state of Ohio is 10.3 points better than its opponents during that time, while Penn State is average 11.3 points better than the other team in that period.

Penn State has dominated domestically, with an average 23.3 points more than the competition when they play in the confines of Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State has been 16 points better on a rough average playing games on the road, beat Michigan State by 31 and lost to Oregon by 1.

Most other analytical models also give the Buckeyes a slight edge over the Nittany Lions.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State came out on top in the majority 61.2 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Penn State as the presumptive winner in the remaining series 38.8 percent from sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory in the game? The index predicts the Buckeyes will beat the spread by half a point.

Ohio State is expected to be the same 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

Penn State is second among the Big Ten teams with one 83.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives the Nittany Lions a total earnings forecast of 11.1 games this season.

Ohio State is right behind in these projections and ranks third in the Big Ten with a 73 percent shot during the twelve-team playoffs.

And the index predictions 10.5 wins for the Buckeyes in ’24.

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: Fox Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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