Kamala Harris has reason for ‘damaging optimism’: political analyst

Political analyst Ron Brownstein said this on Saturday morning CNN that the Democratic Party heads into Election Day with ‘harmful optimism’ about the vice president Kamala Harris thanks to early voting numbers in swing states.

In the seven most contested battleground states, women have cast 55 percent of the vote so far, while men have accounted for 45 percent, according to new data from Catalist, a data company that advocates for progressive causes.

NBC The News reported Thursday that early voting results showed that of the more than 58 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.

Harris, the Democratic nominee, has made defending abortion rights is central to her campaign– an issue that has become an election liability for Republicans – and targeting women of all races and education levels, inclusive Republican women who are dissatisfied with the former president Donald Trumpthe Republican candidate.

Trump’s position on abortion has been inconsistent, with previous statements suggesting that women should be punished for seeking abortions, while he has also highlighted the judicial appointments that led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. He recently indicated he would be willing to veto a national abortion ban, advocating state-level regulation instead.

At a rally on Wednesday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Trump said his advisers told him not to call himself a “protector” of women after he used the term at a meeting in September.

“They said, ‘Sir, I just think it’s inappropriate for you to say that.’ I pay these guys a lot of money; can you believe it?” he said at the meeting. “I said, ‘Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them. I’m going to protect them from the arrival of migrants. I’m going to protect them from foreign countries that want to hit us with missiles and much more. ”

Harris said Thursday Such statements reflect Trump’s lack of understanding of women’s rights to make their own decisions about their bodies and lives.

“I think it’s offensive to everyone, by the way,” the vice president said before beginning a day of campaigning in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada.

At a rally in Phoenix, she further emphasized her point, saying, “He simply does not respect women’s freedom or women’s intelligence to know what is in their own best interest and make decisions accordingly. But we trust women.”

The early voting data is encouraging Democrats who see women as crucial to propelling Harris to the White House.

When Brownstein, a senior political analyst and senior editor of CNN, presented the Catalist figures The Atlantic Oceantold CNN host Amara Walker: “That number you quote is probably the sole reason for the shift in the Democratic mood from pervasive gloom, say, a week ago, to what they call damaging optimism on the brink of the election – that women made up such a high percentage of the early votes.”

However, it is not known whether the increased turnout among women will only benefit Harris, as Trump has seen success in his recent calls for Republicans to cast their vote before election day.

As of Thursday, more registered Republicans than Democrats have cast their ballots by mail or in person in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as of early Thursday, although Democrats face faster Republicans in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Brownstein said Saturday that in normal years, early voting numbers that lean toward women would be just a “tremor.” But in elections that are expected to see a historic gender gap with razor-thin margins, especially in swing states, “everything matters,” the political analyst said.

“Donald Trump will have to win men in all of these states by more than Kamala Harris wins women, and do so as demographics continue to shift and the Republican coalition shifts away,” Brownstein said.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns by email on Saturday morning.

While it is not known how early voting women voted, the early data is worries some Trump supporters.

“Early voices have been disproportionately women. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” says Charlie Kirk, the founder of US turning pointan organization that has become a powerful ally of Trump’s campaign, previously wrote on X Tweet.

Mike Cernovich, a right-wing political commentator, wrote that “the rise of men in Pennsylvania has been a disaster for Trump.” He added, “Unless this changes, Kamala will take over Harris PA (Pennsylvania) and it will be over.”