Latest election predictions from top experts as US braces for possible riots | American news

Top experts have made their final predictions with the American elections just a day away, a little fencing the White House reflected tensions that were at a fever pitch.

On Monday afternoon, a heavy metal fence more than 3 meters high appeared along the perimeter of the official presidential home. USA today reported. Fencing was also installed around the Naval Observatory, where the vice president and Democratic candidate were located Kamala Harris lives, and other crucial buildings Washington, DC.

“There will be no tolerance for violence in our city,” Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith told reporters on the eve of the election.

“We will not tolerate the destruction of property, and we will not tolerate threats to public safety and this election process.”

The Secret Service’s preparations brought eerie flashbacks to nearly four years ago, on January 6, 2021, when then-President Donald TrumpUS supporters breached the US Capitol in an attempt to stop Congress from certifying the presidential election Joe Biden.

With Harris and Trump neck-and-neck and the polls and many pundits viewing the election as a toss-up, tensions are at the highest levels in recent history.

“I think it’s very sad that this is the state of affairs, to be honest,” Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser said at Monday’s news conference.

“But the way I deal with fear is to work and make sure we’re as prepared as possible.”

Workers also boarded up some storefronts and buildings on Pennsylvania Avenue, close to the White House.

In the days leading up to the elections ballot boxes were set on fire and fights have broken out at polling stations between voters and workers.

Here are the latest predictions from three of the top experts tracking the election:

‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential elections

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has been nicknamed ‘Nostradamus’ for correctly predicting nine of the last ten US elections, firmly supports the prediction he revealed in early September.

The American university professor whose model is not based on opinion polls and experts, but on true-false questions that form the thirteen keys to the White House, chose Harris as the victor.

Based on the political party in power, the Democratic Party, Lichtman determined that Harris had only three negative keys: midterm gains, incumbency, and incumbent charisma.

Lichtman has reiterated that its forecast remains unchanged and will not switch, regardless of any ‘October surprise’ or other event in the run-up to the elections.

On Saturday, Lichtman noted that FiveThirtyEight and Predictit dead-heated the election, while The Economist had Harris leading with 52%.

‘After long predicting a Trump victory, other models are belatedly starting to align with The Keys to the White House’ he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Lichtman will go live on his YouTube channel and analyze the election results as they come in on Tuesday at 7 PM ET.

Polling guru

Top analyst and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin Monday morning presidential election prediction had Trump’s odds of winning at 50.4% versus Harris at 49.2%.

On Sunday morning, Silver had called the election ‘a pure throw’.

About two weeks ago, Silver revealed his guts told him that Trump will win – but that Americans shouldn’t trust his gut or anyone else’s, as the race has been virtually 50/50.

In agmost recent essay published in The New York Times On Monday, Silver added another grain of salt to that prediction.

“A lot of people interpreted it differently, as if I revealed my super-duper secret real prediction, and I expected that,” he said.

“But your gut feeling a week before the election is going to be mostly an emotional reaction, or picking up the vibe through osmosis – Republicans are always more confident, so that trickles down – and I don’t think either of these things will help you make a good impression.” to make. better prediction.’

Silver said he would push through final Silver Bulletin model run with any lagging polls at midnight before election day.

‘The best economist in the world’

An economist who was named the most accurate in the world a week ago, Christophe Barraud predicted a Trump victory.

Early Monday, Market Securities Monaco’s chief economist and strategist noted that the “race is getting tighter.”

“In recent days, #Trump’s lead over #Harris has narrowed,” Barraud wrote on X (formerly Twitter) of the betting markets.

He specifically pointed out that Trump had a 54.3% chance of winning, up from 63.9% on October 30, according to RealClearPolitics.

Barraud, named the best forecaster of the US economy by Bloomberg for 11 of the past 12 years, added that the latest polls showed Trump still with a narrow lead nationally, but the spread with Harris was narrowing from + 0.3 on October 30 to +0.1.

Contact our news team by emailing [email protected].

For more stories like this, view our news page.

MORE : Daughter dismembered mother with chainsaw and burned body parts on backyard barbecue

MORE : Legendary TV host fights back tears over US election in passionate plea: ‘I chose to be here’

MORE : Hunter shoots dead woman walking at night after mistaking her for a deer

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and Google Privacy Policy And Terms of Service apply.