A presidential campaign like no other ends today. That's how we got here

AP Photo/Steven Senne Voters are reflected in a window by an American flag as they mark their ballot during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, at City Hall in Providence, R.I.

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s an election no one could have predicted.

Not long ago, Donald Trump was furious at Mar-a-Lago after being impeached twice and voted out of the White House. Even some of his closest allies looked to a future without the charismatic but erratic billionaire who led the Republican Party, especially after his failed attempt to overturn an election ended in violence and embarrassment. When Trump announced his comeback bid two years ago, the New York Post buried the article on page 26.

At the same time, Kamala Harris languished as an unremarkable sidekick to President Joe Biden. Once seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party, she struggled with both her profile and her portfolio, disappointing her supporters and delighting her critics. No one was talking about Harris running for the top job — they were wondering whether Biden should replace her as his running mate as he seeks a second term.

But on Tuesday, as unlikely as it may seem, Americans will choose Trump or Harris as their next president. It is the final chapter in one of the most baffling, unpredictable and consequential sagas in political history. For once, the word “unprecedented” is not overused.

“If someone told you in advance what would happen in this election and you tried to sell it as a book, no one would believe it,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster with more than four decades of experience. “It has energized the country and polarized the country. And all we can hope is that we will come out better in the end.”

History was and will be made. The United States has never elected a president convicted of a crime. Trump survived not one but two assassination attempts. Biden quit in the middle of an election year and Harris could become the first female president. Fundamental principles about democracy in the most powerful country in the world will be tested like no other since the civil war.

Not to mention the backdrop of simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, hacking by foreign governments, an increasingly normalized blizzard of disinformation, and the intimate involvement of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

For now, the only thing the country can agree on is that no one knows how the story will end.

Trump recovered

from disgrace to the Republican nomination

The Republicans could have been done with Trump after January 6, 2021.

That’s the day he incited his supporters with false claims of voter fraud, ordered them to march on the U.S. Capitol as Congress ceremonially certified Biden’s election victory, and then watched as riots threatened lawmakers and his own vice president.

But not enough Republicans joined Democrats to convict Trump in an impeachment trial, clearing the way for him to run again.

Trump began planning a comeback even as some leaders in his party hoped he would be overshadowed by Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, or Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who was Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

In the year after Trump announced he would run against Biden, he was criminally charged four times. Two of the charges related to his attempts to overturn his election defeat. Another involved his refusal to return classified documents to the federal government after leaving office. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges, and none of these cases have been resolved.

However, a fourth indictment in New York led to Trump becoming the first president in American history to be criminally convicted. A jury on May 30 found him guilty of falsifying company records over hush-money payments to a porn star who claimed to be having an affair.

None of that slowed Trump, who virtually ignored his opponents during the primaries as he strode toward the Republican presidential nomination. A mugshot from one of his arrests was adopted by his followers as a symbol of resistance against a corrupt system.

Trump’s candidacy capitalized on anger over inflation and frustration over migrants crossing the southern border. He also hammered Biden as too old for the job, even though he is only four years younger than the president.

But Democrats also believed that the 81-year-old Biden would be better off considering retirement rather than a second term. So when Biden struggled through a presidential debate on June 27 — losing his train of thought, appearing confused and stammering through answers — he faced escalating pressure within his party to drop out of the race.

As Biden faced a political crisis, Trump went to an outdoor rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13. A young man evaded police, climbed to the top of a nearby building and fired several shots from a semiautomatic rifle.

Trump grabbed his ear and fell to the stage. As Secret Service agents crowded around him, he rose to his feet with a streak of blood running down his face, pumped his fist into the air and shouted “fight, fight, fight!” An American flag flew above our heads.

It was an instantly iconic moment. Trump’s path to the White House seemed clearer than ever — perhaps even inevitable.

Harris gets one

unexpected

possibility

at salvation

The vice president was getting ready to do a puzzle with her nieces on the morning of July 21 when Biden called. He had decided to end his re-election bid and endorse Harris as his replacement.

She spent the rest of the day making dozens of phone calls to get support, and she had enough to secure the nomination in two days.

It was a surprising reversal of fortune. Harris had come out four years earlier when he ran for president, dropping out just before the first Democratic primaries. Biden revived her political career by choosing her as his running mate, and she became the first woman, Black person and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president.

But Harris’ battle didn’t end there. She fielded questions on immigration, oversaw high turnover in her office, and faded into the background rather than using her historic status as a platform.

That all began to change on June 24, 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the nationwide right to abortion enshrined in Roe v. Wade. Harris became the White House’s leading advocate on an issue that reshaped American politics.

She also proved to be more agile than before. Shortly after returning from a week-long trip to Africa, her team organized an impromptu venture to Nashville so Harris could show support for two Tennessee lawmakers who were expelled for protesting gun control.

Meanwhile, Harris was networking with local politicians, business leaders and cultural figures to get ideas and build connections. When Biden dropped out, she was in a better position than many realized to seize the moment.

The day after she became a candidate, Harris flew to Wilmington, Delaware to visit campaign headquarters. Employees spent the morning printing “Kamala” and “Harris for President” signs to stick next to outdated “Biden-Harris” posters.

There were 106 days until the end of the election.

The battle between Trump and Harris will reshape the country

While speaking to campaign staff in Wilmington, Harris used a phrase that has become a mantra chanted by supporters at rallies across the country. “We’re not going back,” she declared.

It is a fitting counterpoint to Trump’s slogan ‘make America great again’, which he has used since the launch of his first campaign more than eight years ago.

The two candidates have virtually nothing in common, something that was clearly on display on September 10, when Harris and Trump met for the first time for their only televised debate.

Harris promised to restore abortion rights and use tax breaks to support small businesses and families. She said she would “be a president for all Americans.”

Trump took credit for appointing the judges who helped overturn Roe, promised to protect the U.S. economy with tariffs and made false claims about migrants eating people’s pets. He called Harris “the worst vice president in the history of our country.”

Harris was widely expected to gain the upper hand. Trump insisted he had won but refused a second debate. The race remained remarkably close.

Experts and pollsters have been scrambling in recent weeks to identify any shifts in the candidates’ chances. Microscopic changes in public opinion can influence the outcome of elections. It could take days to count enough votes to determine who wins.

When it becomes clear, the outcome may just be a surprise in a campaign full of them.