What could influence the elections? 6 things that could decide the race

WASHINGTON − After months of deciphering countless pollsup-and-down betting markets and a historical gender gapthe 2024 election is here – and we’ll soon know if it’s a Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president.

More than 80 million people have voted early, and about the same number are expected to go to the polls in person on Tuesday to decide elections that will likely come down to seven top states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.

Have ballots counted by mail, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsinmeans we may not know the winner on election night.

It covers one wild sprint to election day between Trump, impeached twice and four times former president indictedAnd Harristhe incumbent vice president only launching her campaign in late July afterward President Joe Biden fell out. During the race, there were two assassination attempts targeting Trump.

Here are six things to keep an eye on on Election Day that could be crucial in deciding whether Harris or Trump wins:

How big will the gender gap be?

The 2024 race long ago turned into the ‘boys versus girls’ election, with polls showing Harris performing significantly better among women and Trump among men.

Harris is vying to become the country’s first female president. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from October 14 to 18, it showed Harris leading nationally by 53%-36% with female voters and Trump by about the same margin, 53%-37%, with male voters.

Because women have historically voted slightly more often than men, gender dynamics could give Harris the edge. The Harris campaign has emphasized the fight against abortion after Roe v. Wade and has focused on winning women voters in large numbers to help propel Harris to victory.

Democrats are encouraged by early voting Turnout among women nationally outpaced men by about 9 percentage points, about the same margin as in the 2020 election, when Biden defeated Trump.

Will Trump’s bro voice come through?

To overcome Harris’ dominance among female voters, Trump has targeted an often overlooked voting bloc: young men without a university degree.

Trump’s appearances at UFC fights and a college football game. His podcast interviews with Joe Rogan and internet celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. His rollout of a Trump-branded sneaker. Trump’s embrace of wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.

All of this activity – and the brash “machoness” displayed on the campaign trail – is aimed at a segment of the electorate that the Trump campaign believes can help the former president win the election: male voters under the age of 50 who were undecided . in the run-up to the elections, representing around 11% of the electorate in the battleground states.

Many of these voters are considered low-information, low-inclination voters, who do not closely follow every move in the presidential election and do not always vote. Trump needs them to show up.

A silver wave for Harris?

Democrats haven’t included seniors as a voting bloc in presidential elections since Al Gore in 2000, but polls show Harris could do so this year thanks to older women.

Some are calling it a potential “silver wave” for Harris and the “granny gap.”

In the October USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris narrowly led Trump among voters 65 or older, 46%-44% nationally. A national AARP poll as of late September, Harris found a 54%-42% lead over Trump among older women. Rising costs and protecting Social Security and Medicare are among the top priorities of older women, AARP found. But for many, this also applies to abortion − perhaps reminiscent of an America when they had greater reproductive rights than their daughters and granddaughters.

A stunning one Des Moines Register/Mediacom A poll released this weekend showed Harris ahead of Trump by three percentage points in reliably red Iowa, thanks in part to an extraordinary gap among older women — a gap that could propel Harris to victory if it played out in the battlefields of the Midwest.

The poll showed Harris leading senior women in Iowa by a wide margin of 63%-28% and leading senior men 47% to 45%. The poll also showed Harris leading among independent female voters 57%-29%.

Will Trump peel away black and Latino voters?

Polls show the Trump campaign has made progress in peeling away some black and Latino voters — two Democratic strongholds — by targeting younger male voters in both groups.

If Trump increases his share of the black vote even slightly in urban centers like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, to win Harris would have to make up for it by building on Democrats’ recent gains among white, college-educated voters in the suburbs. .

In 2020, Black voters supported Biden over Trump by 92%-8%, according to exit polls, while Latino voters supported Biden by 65%-32%. The October USA TODAY/Suffolk poll found that Harris led black voters by a smaller margin of 72%-17%. This was evident from a national survey of Latino voters conducted by Florida International University last week Harris has a 57%-33% lead among Latino votersthereby gaining back some ground she had lost.

Harris leads Trump 84%-16% among black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan, both underperforming Biden’s margins, Marist College polls showed last week. In Wisconsin, Marist found that Harris received support from 63% of non-whites, while Biden received support from 73% in 2020.

Yet the polls had Harris narrowly leading in all three states – as she is doing better than Biden with white voters: Trump leads 51%-47% with white voters in Pennsylvania, 51%-48% in Michigan and 50% -48% in Wisconsin. It suggests Harris could offset the slippage among voters of color by widening margins with white voters in the suburbs.

A Puerto Rican response?

Some Puerto Rican voters have rallied behind Harris after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe At a recent Trump rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden, he called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash.”

Could the resistance be strong enough to tip the election in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania has a growing population of more than 1 million Hispanic voters — 615,000 of whom are expected to vote — including a large group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state’s third-largest city.

Harris leads Pennsylvania’s Latino voters 64%-30%, according to a poll released Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov, and she leads the state’s Puerto Rican voters 67%-27%. The poll also found that most Pennsylvania Latinos, including Puerto Ricans, were offended by Hinchliffe’s joke, with 67% of respondents saying it was “more racist than humorous,” including 71% of Puerto Ricans.

Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as part of a day of travel through Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state. With a close outcome expected in Pennsylvania, the state’s Puerto Ricans could play a big role.

Will the ‘blue wall’ hold shape or split?

As Harris and Trump try to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win, the first place to look is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The three Rust Belt states have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates winning all three. Biden won each in 2020 after Trump flipped the three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016.

If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states on Tuesday, she would likely win the election even if she loses all four Sun Belt battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That assumes Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where she is leading, and is a heavy favorite to win in all other states. Harris would win the Electoral College 270-268 in this scenario.

But for Trump, a win in any of the “blue wall” states — but especially in the biggest prize, Pennsylvania — would open multiple avenues for him to reach 270 by combining that win with wins in the Sun Belt states, where he usually questioned more strongly.

For example, if Trump takes Pennsylvania — but loses Wisconsin and Michigan — he would win 271-267 in the Electoral College if he also wins three of the Sun Belt states.

In this scenario, Harris would have to offset a loss in Pennsylvania by carrying at least two Sun Belt states. It would mean that Trump could lose either Georgia or North Carolina – both of which have 16 electoral votes – and still win.

Reach Joey Garrison at X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison