How many North Atlantic right whales are there and how many will die in 2024?

According to a recent report by the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, the right whale population has shown a slight increase in recent years, although scientists emphasize that the critically endangered species still faces significant, ongoing threats from human activities.

Each year, the consortium publishes annual population estimates for the species, using the most up-to-date data, including calves added to the population since the previous year.

In a report released last week at the consortium’s annual meeting in Providence, Rhode Island, scientists used this updated data to calculate annual right whale population estimates since 1990. The newly released estimate for 2023 is 372, including 12 calves for the year.

The encouraging news is that the trend for this species has been slowly increasing since 2020, when it hit a low of 358. These estimates are a collaboration between scientists at the Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“Seeing population estimates rising gives us hope that what has seemed like a free fall over the past decade may be behind us,” said Heather Pettis, a researcher at the Anderson Cabot Center and chair of the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium.

“While we still have a lot of work to do to ensure this species not only recovers but thrives, it’s really nice to be able to share a bit of positive news.”

During this week’s consortium meeting, scientists are also sharing reports on right whale deaths, entanglements and ship strikes, but the news is less positive.

So far in 2024, five right whale deaths and four other lost calves have been detected, the highest annual death toll since 2019. The causes of death were identified as chronic entanglement for one whale and ship strike for three.

One of the whales could not be recovered for evaluation. These nine deaths could significantly lower the 2024 population estimate when it is generated next year.

“While ship entanglements remain the leading cause of death and injury, at least six ship strike-related injuries or deaths have been reported this year, underscoring the importance of quickly addressing this issue. “The persistent concentration of more than 50 right whales in the New York shipping lane this summer further underscores this,” Pettis said.

Several deaths that occurred in 2024 highlight the human-caused nature of right whale injuries. When a three-year-old female was found dead in January after being entangled for more than 17 months, she was malnourished and had a rope deeply embedded in her tail.

The woman, who was at least 35 years old and gave birth to her sixth calf this year, died in March when the ship struck. Her calf is presumed dead.

The 2024 Juno right whale calf was struck by a vessel sometime between December 9, 2023 and January 3, 2024 and suffered significant head injuries from the propeller.

The calf, disfigured and bleeding repeatedly, was last seen alive on February 27. On March 2, Juno was seen without her calf, and the calf was found dead the next day.

In addition to the five documented deaths and four calves lost so far, the analysis by scientists at the Anderson Cabot Center aquarium reveals that 13 disturbing human-caused injuries to right whales occurred in 2024, including seven entanglements in fishing gear and four injuries in result of entanglement (without tool attached) and two ship impacts.

“After seven years of steady decline from 2013 to 2020, this reversal in population trends over the last few years is welcome news. “I wish we could conclude that this doesn’t paint a rosy picture for the future, but the number of deaths and serious injuries in 2024 is sobering,” said Philip Hamilton, senior scientist at the Anderson Cabot Center and curator of the consortium’s identification database.

“While whales can adapt to a rapidly changing environment, the continuing high levels of mortality and serious injury clearly demonstrate that we must continue to adapt and evolve our management.”

The effort to protect the North Atlantic right whale, one of the most endangered large whale species in the world, involved conservationists, scientists, government agencies, and representatives of the fishing and shipping industries from both the United States and Canada.

Despite these efforts, ship entanglements and strikes continue to threaten the survival of the species and additional measures are necessary.

Advances in lineless or on-demand fishing technology are promising, although widespread implementation will require significant financial support to increase gear production and provide training and support to the fishing industry in the use of fishing gear.

NOAA is also working to develop vessel speed limits that will better protect North Atlantic right whales while ensuring that both the species and the economy thrive.

Calving rates this decade have improved compared to 2010 calving rates, but are still lower than what scientists observed in the 2000s. Last calving season, 20 calves were born – eight more than last year – but that increase was greatly curtailed by the death of at least five of those calves by spring.

Four of the mothers calved for the first time, which is encouraging considering that many adult females have delayed their first calving in recent years.

“Calving year 2024 has been an emotional roller coaster for us in the right whale community, with relatively high numbers of births and deaths. The case ended on a high note when a mother named Pico and her calf were discovered off the coast of Virginia in June. We approach the upcoming 2025 calving season, which begins in December, with anticipation and anxiety. “One of the main questions is whether some of the 10- to 20-year-old adult females over 40 who have delayed the birth of their first calf will end up in the breeding pool,” Hamilton said.

Following this week’s meeting, the consortium will produce a comprehensive annual report on the status of the species; survey, management and research activities; and recommendations for action.

The report will be available in early 2025 and published on the Consortium’s website.

Founded in 1986 as a collaborative group, the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium is composed of research and conservation organizations, members of the shipping and fishing industries, technical experts, U.S. and Canadian government agencies, and state and provincial governments, all of which are committed to the conservation and recovery of the North Atlantic right whale.

The consortium is internationally recognized and has been considered a model for the creation of other species organizations.

The New England Aquarium is a nonprofit research and conservation organization that has been protecting and caring for ocean and marine animals for over 50 years. It helps shape policies that create tangible change to address the threats facing the ocean.

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