close
close

What are the swing state paths to 270 electoral votes for Harris and Trump?

What are the swing state paths to 270 electoral votes for Harris and Trump?

As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still in a tight race to cross the Electoral College threshold of 270, recent polls show.

The two candidates are within the margin of error in swing states, as Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. According to him, Trump has a small lead in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona 538’s poll average from Friday.

Previous elections have shown that the results of national elections have influenced the polls, so it is still everyone’s choice.

However, given the data, there are some likely scenarios in which either candidate could win the Electoral College votes and the presidency.

Assuming the polls accurately reflect the final results in the states, Trump would win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, winning the election with 287 electoral votes.

The former president’s lead in these states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, well within the margin of error of any major poll, according to data from 538.

If the polls underestimate Harris’ lead, she could earn exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states.

If the polls underestimate Trump’s lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, which would give him 268 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the 270 limit in that scenario.

More than 65 million Americans voted Friday morning, representing 40% of the 2020 turnout. However, there is no real data on those votes that will determine who will win the race.

Early voting data has shown that the majority of early voters are women, a fact touted by the Harris campaign and Democrats.

However, the data also shows that 41% of early voters are registered Democrats, compared to 39% of registered Republicans. During the same period in 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to the data.

Copyright © 2024 ABC News Internet Ventures.