The Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon raise fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

BEIRUT – Perched on a hilltop, a short walk from the Israeli border, the small southern Lebanese village of Ramyah has almost been wiped off the map. In a neighboring village, satellite photos show a similar scene: a hill once covered with houses, now reduced to a gray patch of rubble.

Israeli warplanes and ground forces have left a trail of destruction across southern Lebanon over the past month. The goal, Israel says, is to weaken the militant group Hezbollah, push it away from the border and end more than a year of Hezbollah fire on northern Israel.

Even UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops in the south have come under fire from Israeli forces, raising questions about whether they can remain in place.

More than 1 million people have fled the bombardment, leaving much of the south empty. Some experts say Israel may want to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already deployed along the Gaza border.

Some conditions for such a zone appear to already be in place, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite images and data collected by mapping experts showing the extent of destruction in 11 villages next to the border.

The Israeli military has said the bombing is necessary to destroy Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure. According to the group, this group is embedded in cities. The blasts have also destroyed homes, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages where families have lived for generations.

Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah back far enough for its citizens to safely return to their homes in the north, but Israeli officials acknowledge they have no concrete plan to ensure Hezbollah stays away from the border in the long term. This is an important point of attention in attempts by the United States to reach a ceasefire.

Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate goal is not to create a buffer zone – but that could change.

“We may have no choice but to stay there until we have an arrangement that promises us that Hezbollah will not come back to the zone,” she said.

A path of destruction

Troops entered southern Lebanon on October 1, backed by heavy bombardments that have increased since then.

Using satellite images from Planet Labs PBC, AP has identified a row of 11 villages — all within a four-mile radius of Lebanon’s border with Israel — that have been seriously damaged over the past month, either by attacks or by detonations of explosives launched by Israeli soldiers have been laid.

Analysis found that the most intense damage in the South occurred in the villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged, according to Corey Scher of the CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of Oregon State University, experts in the field of research. damage assessments.

In Ramyah, barely a single building remains on the village’s central hilltop, following a controlled explosion that Israeli soldiers carried out themselves in videos posted on social media. In the next town, Aita al-Shaab – a village with strong Hezbollah influence – the bombardment turned the hilltop with the highest concentration of buildings into a gray wasteland of rubble.

In other villages the damage is more selective. In some cases the bombing tore scars through blocks of houses; in others, certain houses were crushed while their neighbors remained intact.

Another controlled explosion leveled much of the village of Odeissah, with an explosion so strong it set off earthquake warnings in Israel.

In video footage of the explosion, Lubnan Baalbaki, conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, watched in disbelief as his parents’ home – containing the art collection and a library that his father had spent years building – was destroyed.

“This house was a project and a dream for both my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now lost.

Asked whether it intended to create a buffer zone, the Israeli military said it was conducting “local, limited, targeted attacks based on accurate intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. It said Hezbollah had “deliberately” embedded weapons in homes and villages.

Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a house that the military said was being used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In a television segment, Kushmaro and the soldiers counted down before pressing a button, causing a massive explosion.

Videos posted online by the Israeli army and individual soldiers show Israeli forces planting flags on Lebanese soil. Yet Israel has not built any bases nor has it managed to maintain a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to be moving back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.

October was the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli military, with around 60 deaths.

Attacks on UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese army

The bombardment was interrupted by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese army – forces required by international law to keep peace in the area. Israel has long complained that its presence has not stopped Hezbollah from building its infrastructure in the south.

Israel denies targeting both forces.

The Lebanese army has said at least 11 of its soldiers have been killed in eight Israeli attacks, either on their positions or while assisting evacuations.

The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure have suffered damage at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli military fire or actions for about 20 of them, “seven of which are clearly intentional.”

A rocket likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group struck UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing some minor injuries, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.

UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon despite calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to leave.

Experts warn this could change if peacekeepers come under greater fire.

“If you went from the UN taking casualties to the UN actually taking fatalities,” some troop contributing nations “would say ‘enough is enough,’ and you might see the mission start to crumble ,” said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.

The future of the area is uncertain

International ceasefire efforts appear to focus on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

It specified that Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Lebanon, while the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL – not Hezbollah – would be the exclusive armed presence in a zone about 15 miles from the border.

But the resolution was not fully implemented. Hezbollah has never left the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small parts of its country and conducting regular military flights over its territory.

During a recent visit to Beirut, US envoy Amos Hochstein said a new agreement was needed to enforce Resolution 1701.

Israel could try to broker an agreement through the destruction caused in southern Lebanon.

Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the army must “further consolidate its operational performance” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and intermediary countries “to accept an end (of the war) under conditions that be favorable. for Israel.”

Some Lebanese fear this means an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.

Lebanese lawmaker Mark Daou, a critic of both Hezbollah and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn the Lebanese public “against the will to oppose Israeli incursions.” to postpone.”

Gowan of the International Crisis Group said one of the aims of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility so that it, and not Hezbollah, would be seen “as the legitimate defender” in the south.

“That evaporates when they become the (Israeli) gendarmerie of southern Lebanon,” he said.

Frankel reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press writer Lujain Jo in Beirut contributed to this report.