Polls harm our democracy, even when the surveys are accurate

Yet freedom brings responsibility. Our rampant polling may satisfy Americans’ hunger to know what might happen before we vote, but it is a major contributor to the deterioration of our democracy. While we cannot ban it, we can take more responsibility for its consequences.

The problem with polls is not their quality. On average, pollsters typically get races within a few percentage points. In general, we can trust the polls as long as we realize that a small lead does not guarantee victory.

The problem is its effect on the quality of our political discourse and our openness to treating more candidates seriously. Take this year. A deafening drumbeat from the polls all but silenced what we might have learned about candidates.

It started before the primaries. Incumbent Joe Biden dominated among Democrats. His predecessor, Donald Trump, dominated among Republicans. They were historically unpopular, but their large lead over the competition dampened interest in the primaries.

Biden and Trump refused to debate their challengers. Yet primary voters forgave them. If polls showed the results were a foregone conclusion, why should we worry about debates, even if they could have helped voters better assess their readiness and have more policy discussions within their parties?

Democrats got a rude awakening from Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump in June. Biden’s candidacy was in trouble, but the debate’s relatively modest effect on the polls kept him in the race for weeks. When he finally withdrew, Kamala Harris immediately reaffirmed his decision, giving Democrats a wave of hope.

Would Harris be better positioned now if he had to win a “blitz primary” in which voters could have learned more about her and her priorities? We’ll never know. Polls showed her as the frontrunner, justifying her appointment.

By September, the combination of polls and relentless attacks had reduced potential independent and minor party candidates to the margins. The most reliably brutal effect of polls is the sidelining of small-time pirates, apart from their ‘spoiler impact’.

Now it’s all about polls in the boringly familiar seven presidential swing states. Opinion polls justify why the candidates spend almost all their time there and why billions will be spent on the few million tie-breaking voters who will decide who wins.

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In winner-take-all elections, campaigning only matters when the results are questionable. In the Senate elections, Republicans are seeking unrest in Maryland, Democrats in Texas and Florida, and independents in Nebraska. But polls make them underdogs, and that Senate control will likely depend on whether the Democratic incumbents can take over Ohio and Montana.

Of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, only about 40 could switch parties – and far fewer will do so. Opinion polls are redefining where resources go, depressing debate, competition and turnout everywhere.

Reliance on polls leads to meaningful discussions about issues and character. It ensures that most of us know that we are only token participants and nervous spectators in deciding control of the White House and Congress.

So what to do? Given the First Amendment, we can’t easily regulate the polls beyond mandating shorter campaigns or limiting how much billionaires can spend on influencing opinion. But we can still take more personal responsibility.

First, we can turn off polls and reward journalists who focus more on the content than the horse race with our subscriptions and clicks.

Second, we may refuse to participate in polls, which creates more uncertainty by making it harder to get a representative sample.

Third, we can support electoral reforms that empower voters. Pollsters thrive on binary elections where voters choose only one candidate. Ranked-choice voting will be used in Alaska and Maine and on the ballot in four other states in November, giving underage candidates a fair chance and encouraging creative campaigns. Combining it with all-candidate primaries and multi-member districts will create elections.

In general, I trust the polls this year, but I would like our collective work to reduce their influence.